How to Fix the United States’ Debt Problems & Reduce Federal Deficits

federal-debt-18 trillionAccording to projections by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), America will continue to spend more than it receives in revenues from 2016 to 2026, and perhaps beyond. The budget deficit is projected to be slightly below 3% of gross domestic product (GDP) through 2018, then rise to 4.9% by 2026.
 
If the CBO projections are accurate, the federal debt will grow another $9.4 trillion by the end of the 10-year period, with potentially dire consequences for the country. According to the authors of the report, “The likelihood of a fiscal crisis in the United States would increase. There would be a greater risk that investors would be unwilling to finance the government’s borrowing needs unless they were compensated with very high interest rates; if that happened, interest rates on the federal debt would rise suddenly and sharply.”
 
Higher interest rates—averaging 2.3% in 2014 and 2015, as reported by TreasuryDirect—on an increasing amount of debt are likely to cause a “crowding out” effect, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. As the Federal Government borrows more money to pay its bills, there is less capital available for the private sector.
 
Many believe that the CBO’s concern is understated. In his testimony before the United States Senate Budget Committee February 25, 2015, economist Dr. Laurence J. Kotlikoff of Boston University bluntly stated, “Our country is broke. It’s not broke in 75 years or 50 years or 25 years or 10 years. It’s broke today. Indeed, it may well be in worse fiscal shape than any developed country, including Greece.” Kotlikoff claims that Congress has “cooked the books” for years, and that the difference between the present value of all projected future government expenditures less the present value of all projected future receipts was actually $210 trillion in 2014, more than 16 times the actual reported debt.
 
Whether or not economists agree on the appropriate level of the federal debt, there is agreement that the only way to reduce annual deficits and pay down the debt is for the government to Collect more than it spends – an unlikely (if not impossible) result in today’s political atmosphere. Only six times between 1960 and 2015 has the Federal Government spent less than it collected, according to the Office of Management and Budget. Most recently, in 2015, the Federal Government collected $3.25 trillion in taxes, almost 60% from income taxes, while spending $3.69 trillion. As a result, the budget deficit of $439 billion—the lowest deficit since 2008—was added to the federal debt.
 

The Myth of Economic Growth as a Solution

Politicians regularly suggest that the deficit problem can be resolved as the economy improves because revenues through taxes naturally increase as incomes rise through stronger growth. Such thinking encourages postponing actions that are politically unpopular, such as raising taxes or cutting popular programs.
 
Hoping that economic growth can solve America’s problems is likely futile for the following reasons:
 
GDP Growth Is Projected to Be Lower Than in the Past. According to the CBO’s Budget and Economic Data, annual growth averaged 3.2% to 3.3% from 1974 to 2001, 2.7% from 2002 to 2007, and 1.4% from 2008 to 2015. While the economy is recovering, the CBO projects average annual growth from 2016 to 2025 at 2.0%, well below the average prior to 2008.
 
Widening Income Disparity Threatens Economic Growth. The trickle-down theory was discredited by a 2015 International Monetary Fund report, which indicated that when the rich get richer, no others benefit and growth slows. The data from more than 150 nations suggests that when the richest 20% of a society increases their income by 1%, the annual rate of GDP growth shrinks by nearly 0.1% within five years.
 
Costs for the Major Entitlement Programs Will Rise Sharply. The aging population, rising healthcare costs per person, and increased costs of the Affordable Care Act are likely to boost federal spending for Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid if current laws remain unchanged. As Kotlikoff testified, the estimated 76 million members of the Baby Boomer generation are already entering a period where each recipient will Collect “$40,000 in Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid benefits each year.” As a consequence, the largest group of people to put money into the system – the Boomers – will begin taking it out. Left unchanged, Social Security will begin using its surplus funds to pay benefits in 2017 and deplete reserves by 2034.
 
Interest Costs on Federal Debt Will Triple in the Next 10 Years. According to CBO projections, net interest costs for the federal debt are projected to more than triple from $223 billion in 2015 to $772 billion in 2025.
Projections Do Not Include the Costs of New Wars for Defense Against Terrorism. The Watson Institute of Brown University estimates the costs to date of the wars in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iraq at $4.4 trillion, all of which were funded by borrowing. Some analysts estimate the costs of the three wars even higher. The cost of future defense is unknown, but likely to be as high as – if not higher than – past wars.
 
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How to Write and Update A Will

will1While you can’t take your property with you when you die, you can direct how your assets will be distributed by making a will. Unfortunately, some people never get around to the task, and instead die “intestate” – a legal term dictating how all property greater than the sum of your enforceable debts and funeral expenses, in the absence of a will, is distributed. Surprisingly, almost half of all adults die without a will, according to a 2012 Rocket Lawyer survey. In such cases, state law determines who gets what – including custody of minor children.
 
It is not just the poor and uneducated who die intestate. Celebrities such as Howard Hughes, Pablo Picasso, and Sonny Bono all failed to have wills, as did Swedish author Stieg Larsson, best known for “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo” series of novels. As a consequence, distribution of their property to loved ones and business partners was delayed and expensive.
 
Unfortunately, even those with the foresight to prepare a will often forget to update its provisions as their circumstances change over the years—the birth and maturity of children, accumulation or divestiture of assets, or changes in personal responsibilities, for example. Therefore, the transfer of their assets may be inconsistent with their final wishes, overly expensive, and a source of emotional pain and frustration for their loved ones. In the worst circumstances, the estate passes (escheats) to the government, an undesirable result for almost all people.

Creating a Will

Some people elect to postpone or avoid writing a will because they falsely believe that taxes and administrative expenses may reduce the amount of funds (what lawyers call the “corpus” of the estate) that will be distributed to their heirs. However, a will does not complicate the distribution of an estate, but is intended to facilitate the passage of assets and maximize the benefits of the parties. Failing to write one only complicates matters for those who will be left to pick up the pieces.
 
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Lifetime Savings Plan – Principles for Every Age

save1Many Americans are now discovering that a comfortable retirement and adequate healthcare are beyond their means. As a consequence, we are working later in life, lowering our expectations, and going without not only luxuries, but essentials as well.
 
The decisions we make through our lives come with financial consequences. These choices include the careers we develop, the colleges we attend, the people we marry, the size of our family, and the lifestyles we adopt. While many of these choices may seem out of our control, it is possible to make adjustments along the way to minimize their worst financial consequences. The advantage available to everyone is time: The sooner we understand the long-term impact of our decisions and make the necessary changes, the more likely we are to reach our financial goals.

Major Lifetime Expenses

People incur common expense categories as they pass through different stages of life. However, the magnitude and timing of each vary from individual to individual. For example, one person may have $25,000 in student loan debt, while another has none. One person might get married at age 22 and have two children while another gets married at age 35 and has three children – another may not marry at all.
 
As a consequence, the following categories are necessarily broad, and a specific expense category may not apply to everyone. Nevertheless, a rough timeline projecting the cost of future expenses can enable you to save a portion of your income through each phase of life, helping you comfortably pay expenses when they occur, and ultimately leading to a substantial retirement fund.

1. Student Debt

According to a recent report by the Institute for College Access & Success, seven out of ten graduating college seniors in 2013 had student loans averaging $28,400. The median debt for those who earn post-graduate degrees is an additional $57,600, according to New America – one in ten graduate students owe $150,000 or more.
 
The cost of obtaining an undergraduate or graduate degree continues to escalate. While there are differences in everyone’s loan limits, interest rates, and repayment requirements, every borrower has to decide whether to focus on repayment as quickly as possible or make minimal payments and begin a savings program.
 
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10 Year-End Tax Planning Strategies to Save More Money

girl with calculatorDespite what Democratic Senator Ron Wyden of Oregon calls “a rotting economic carcass that’s infected with chronic diseases like loopholes and inefficiencies,” federal tax reform is unlikely to occur until after the U.S. presidential election in 2016. Deadlock between the political parties is likely to continue, especially in light of Republicans gaining control of both houses of government during the November 2014 elections.
 
However, despite the inaction of Congress, the fact remains that more than 50 tax breaks expired at the end of 2013 – and many Americans are unaware of the changes, even though their tax bill may incur a significant increase. If you are among those earners who may be affected, it is important to recognize these changes and to take action before the end of the year to keep more of your gross earnings.

Tax Law Changes That May Affect You in 2015

High-earning taxpayers will be liable for higher taxes due to laws passed in 2013 that include the following:

1. New top tax bracket of 39.6% for incomes greater than $400,000 for individuals and $450,000 for joint filers
2. Medicare surtax charge of 0.9% for individuals who earn more than $200,000, or $250,000 for joint filers
3. Net Investment Income Taxof 3.8% on the lesser of your net investment income or the excess of your modified adjusted gross income (MAGI) over $200,000 for individuals, or $250,000 filing jointly
4. Limitations on itemized deductions and personal exemptions for those with incomes of $254,200 or more ($305,050 for joint filers)
 
Additional changes that may increase your taxes include the following:
 
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